GSE Academic Award for Excellence for correlating twitter sentiment analysis and stock price variations

GSE - Guide Share EuropeEkaterina Shabunina recently graduated under my supervision as a M.Sc. student of the Como Campus of Politecnico di Milano with a thesis titled “Approach based on CRF to Sentiment Classification of Twitter Streams related to Companies”. Thanks to the innovation of her work, she won the Grand Prize 2013 for the GSE Academic Award for Excellence.

The work is based on the assumption that information produced and shared on social networks is getting more and more interesting as a source for inferring trends and happenings in the real world. She applied sentiment classification of Twitter streams related to companies and calculated statistical correlation analysis with the companies’ securities prices variation. Tweets are labeled with a tailored classification model, which by itself exhibits solid performance indicators, and then are correlated to stock market values. The approach applies the Conditional Random Fields probabilistic model to company-related Twitter data streams and shows that there is high correlation between the classified results and the stock market values, even when adopting a very simple feature model. In particular, it presents a near-perfect adherence of accumulated number of net positive tweets versus the stock’s closing price with an ideal level of significance of the regression and a 97.56% explanatory capacity of the achieved fitted equation in the best case.

The project will be presented on the GSE Management Summit in Barcelona on October 14th, 2013. Here is a short interview with Ekaterina.


IBM logoGSE (Guide Share Europe), a non-profit association of companies, organizations and individuals who are involved in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solutions based on IBM architectures, established the GSE Academic Award for Excellence for students.

Further information about the awards is available on GSE website.

To keep updated on my activities you can subscribe to the RSS feed of my blog or follow my twitter account (@MarcoBrambi).

Social BPM: links, references and resources

In this post I wish to summarize the opinions and the discussions on the hot topic Social BPM. I think this provides a good understanding of the topic and a feeling on the debate that is still ongoing. If you know about other useful references, feel free to add them (self-citations are also welcome). Also, if you are cited and you think your position is not well represented by the quote, feel free to detail it.
One further valuable resource is the Social BPM handbook that will be available starting June 2011,on which I also wrote a chapter on A Model-driven Approach to Social BPM Applications.

Uhoh. Social BPM in the real world? [Thanks to Jim Sinur for pointing this out. Credits for Dilbert: Scott Adams]

Who is socializing in Social BPM, Keith Swenson

“Proper use of social software will be about individuals producing, publishing and running their own processes. Not collaboration on the design phase, but designing individually, and collaborating with a completed process.  This won’t just be the BPM lifecycle using social software, it will be the elimination of the BPM lifecycle, the elimination of a design phase, the elimination of the separation between designers and workers.”

Will Social Revive Interest In BPM? Will BPM Make Social Relevant?, Sandy Kemsley

“Everyone could be a writer in the blogosphere, but in reality, only a tiny fraction of those who read blogs actually write blogs, or even comment on blogs. The same will likely occur in runtime collaboration in BPM: only a fraction of users will design processes, even though all have the capability to do so, but all will benefit from it.”

Knowledge Management, Social Media, Social BPM and Control, Sandy Kemsley

“There is a paradigm shift happening in the way that organizations understand control. Control no longer means that management dictates every action that every employee takes, but rather that appropriate levels of control are given to everyone so that they can control their environment and make it most effective for their tasks at hand.”

The Continuum of Social BPM, Marco Brambilla

 “The introduction of social features in business processes can be achieved at different levels, according to a spectrum of possibilities: from closed BPM to Participatory Design, Participatory enactment, Social enactment, and Process Mining.”

Want Value From Social? Add Structure, Tom Davenport

“I’m becoming convinced that the way to gain value is to combine computer-based sociality with computer-based structure. […] The combination of the social and structuring aspects of technology ensures that online social activities are oriented to getting work done. The addition of structure makes everyone more conscious of the work tasks at hand, which limits the desire for purely social interaction. ”

The BPM Game Changer, Adam Deane

“It’s just a matter of time before organisations will be purchasing Twitter-like software for their internal use, and BPM will need to adapt to this new environment. Yes, Google Wave failed. But that doesn’t mean that the trend is dead.. Other companies are building Twitter for Business applications”

Is Social BPM A Methodology, A Technology, Or Just A Lot Of Hype?, Clay Richardson

“On the one hand, some feel that social BPM is all about tools and technology (i.e., process wikis, process mashups, etc.).  And on the other hand, I see another camp emerging that believes social BPM should focus on transforming the organization and the organization’s processes. I say, they’re both right.  We see customers adopting social BPM along a continuum.”

Is There Social BPM?, Boris Lublinsky

“Social networks have already profoundly changed our lives. Usage of social media will create a similar impact on BPM design and implementation. Will it create a new type of BPM or just a new way of BPM implementation remains to be seen.”

Social BPM: Is It Social, or is It BPM?
Open question by Peter Schooff  (with some responses below)

Michael zur Muehlen:

“If you only focus on streamlining process execution and making it as efficient as possible the social aspect diminishes. But if you consider process discovery, the development of a shared understanding of what your operations look like, and monitoring your process environment, then social plays a big role. Social is all about providing context, a rich environment of data points that a streamlined workflow would be lacking otherwise. The challenge is to make this context useful, both from a social networking perspective and from an unstructured data perspective.”

Tom Allanson:

“Social BPM is basically just collaborative business process management utilizing a collective network environment – it’s about extending BPM access and decision-making to partners and select external parties without compromising the exclusivity of the core group.”

Clay Richardson:

“Basically social capabilities are now assumed to be baked into BPM offerings. I think the real question now is how do you move your organization to harness social BPM capabilities.”

The future of social BPM

“The future of social BPM lies in developing the best way to leverage social media tools to promote collaboration and coordination in the workplace – on an enterprise basis with a meaningful contribution to the business.”

Social has no future (Yet), Keith Swenson

“In general, social software systems record what is happening now and in the past, but for the most part completely lack any representation of the future. Enterprise Social Software, or Social Business Software, will succeed only if it has some representation of goals or other future activities.”

Will social BPM supercharge BPM?, Thomas J. Olbrich.

“My view would be that we need to become more social where it helps. But let’s not overreach and hold company-wide opinion polls during process design and implementation. Social in the sense of making room for qualified input is fine, process anarchy is not.”

Social BPM is a Methodology FIRST, Just like BPM

“I will argue that more than 50% of the information and data used to complete business processes is communicated outside of the formality of business process technologies today.  Chat programs, emails, standing in front of the coffee machine in the AM, and passing people in the hall are easy and convenient channels of vital information exchange. […] There is no reason to start employing any existing Social BPM or Social Technology application today without first understanding the state of “chaos” you have today.”

Realizing the Promise of BPM Software: Forrester Says Social BPM Extends Process Participation, Ben Farrell

“BPM software will only reach its true potential when more people inside (and outside) the organization get involved. Social BPM is a great way to extend the reach and impact of the technology across an organization – to get more people to “Be Part of the Process”. […] Run-time social BPM means you get real-time feedback on how well a process is working. It means process bottlenecks can be identified and resolved, and processes improved, faster.”

Social Breaks The Logjam On Business Process Improvement Initiatives, Clay Richardson

During process design, teams leverage social tools to more easily engage stakeholders in process discovery and definition, including frontline workers, customers, and partners. For process development, some process pros turn to social and Web 2.0 tools by using BPM software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings. And during process execution, teams leverage social to support dynamic business processes.

What are the boundaries of social BPM?, Chris Taylor

“I’ll admit, ‘social’ can strike fear into the hearts of the traditionalist (and/or control freak), and social BPM is no different.  Will making my processes open to all lead to chaos and anarchy?  I would argue the opposite is true.”

Tapping into Collective Knowledge Will Drive Unstructured Process Activity, Jim Sinur

“When organizations aggressively tap into collective knowledge inside and out side their organizations, BPM will have to behave differently. BPM will have to support morphing work driven by emerging goals and dynamic decisions and be able to identify potential best practices.”

Social BPM – Responding to Business Uncertainties, Arun Ravindran

“If refining in Business Processes Management (BPM) was all the rage in the eighties, then leveraging the power of emergent processes seems to be the focus and challenge of today’s businesses. “

Making BPM “Social”: Flexibility First, Sociability Follows, Andy Wang

“To enable organizational agility, decision makers need to be able to adapt quickly in the face of change. An ECM system with flexible BPM tools is a necessary foundation to have in place before putting a Social BPM methodology into practice.”

Social BPM and the new IT stack, Keith Harrison-Broninski

“If you need to fuse the structural benefits of BPM with the collaborative potential of social technology, you won’t find it in the products currently being marketed as “social BPM”. Rather, you need to look elsewhere, for […] “collaborative planning””

Social BPM and the HIMS, Keith Harrison-Broninski

“My purpose is to point out that the current hype for social BPM is unjustified, which cannot be a good thing either for consumers or vendors. If you try Blueworks Live expecting a solution for high-level knowledge work, you will only come away disappointed.”

What constitutes a social BPMS, by Sameer Jejurkar

“So what is social BPM(S)? At its core “social” means collaboration and communication. It can mean collaboration and communication that occurs during normal course of business i.e. when a business process is in flight. This is interaction (such as email, phone conversations etc.) between users that usually happens outside the context of a typical (non-social?) BPMS. The ability to collaborate with others in the organization is a definite plus for all internal users.”

Much ado about nothing? — reconsidering IBM Blueworks Live

I’ve been quite excited at the announcement of IBM Blueworks Live by  Phil Gilbert at BPM 2010 last September, and the expectations kept growing until the last weekend.
The I read the blog post by Sandy Kemsley and I thought: all right, that’s a preview, let’s wait for the final site. Then I went through the official site in the weekend and I thought: all right, that’s a placeholder.
Other bloggers came out with their comments too (for instance, see Mike Gammage‘s one here).
But today it’s Monday again and here we are.  Is that it?

The demo shows you a pretty nice interface for:

  • a twitter list on #bwlive and not much more
  • a BPMS log in the shape of a twitter feed
  • an old-fashioned shared project repository
  • a form based editor just enabling trivial processes
  • execution on the cloud
  • .. what else? and in particular, what’s new?

I sincerely hope IBM has much better plans for the future than this. I wouldn’t dare call #bwlive Social BPM in any sense: no flexibility, no real social relationship exploitation.
Please contradict me, I really need it!

Praise to IBM for one thing though: they have enough courage for pushing the end user design of simple processes. Not a big product feature, but a big shift in how to approach problems. Btw, this is a bold attempt also considering the failures of several end-user oriented design approaches such as the visual mashup composition tools (ever heard about Microsoft PopFly, Google Mashup Builder, and so on? maybe not, they are all dead and buried, only Yahoo! Pipes survives:).

Again on BPM posting. Responses to Sandy Kemsley

Maintaining Consistency Across BPM Initiatives’ Content(November 3, Enterprise Irregulars)

In response to a writeup by Sandy Kemsley on a user experince on MDD+BPM at Bank of America.
Dear Sandy,
Thank you so much for sharing this writeup and comment.
Being a researcher on MDD and BPM, I’m glad to see that this recipe is getting more and more attention in the industry.
Being also a (software) analyst and a partner in a tool vendor company (WebRatio) I agree with you that pushing this combination of methodologies to the customers can be painful, because customers are rather conservative in terms of innovation and do not trust tools and approaches that are not in the orthodox mainstream.
However, we also had some really good success stories in making big customers adopt these approaches (see for instance our experiences we shared at BPM 2010 in Hoboken and that will also be published in an upcoming book edited by M. Rosemann and M. zur Muehlen. Presentation here: ).
I share with you the concern about setting up weird combinations of tools for addressing BPM with a MDD approach.
In WebRatio, it took us 10 years to come up with a coherent suite of modeling, transformation, and code generation facilities that integrate in a seamless way BPM, data modeling, application modeling, quick prototyping, and code generation for production applications.
Since MDD is a very neat and conceptual approach, I think appropriate toolsuites that correctly deal with the models and their relationship is crucial for granting full benefits of a virtuous model-driven lifecycle.

Enabling Smarter BPM through Business Entities with Lifecycles (November 3, Column2 blog by Sandy Kemsley)

In response to a writeup by Sandy Kemsley on Rick Hull work on integrated  BP and data modeling at IBM T.J. Watson.
Thanks for this overview on Rick’s work. I think this is a crucial change of paradigm that companies will embrace sooner or later.
It doesn’t make any sense to consider data and processes as separate realms, with different kings and armies fighting at their borders.
I also have been doing integrated modeling of different aspects of applications for a while, not limited to BP and data models, but comprising also other aspects like user role modeling, application logic modeling, user interaction modeling, and so on. In our approach we envision an integrated model driven development (MDD) approach covering all these aspects and providing automatic alignment and quick prototyping.
I strongly believe that model integration, alignment and continuous cross-validation down to the implementation is the only response to the complex needs of today’s enterprises.
Here is an overview of what we do:
And a summary of MDD responses to current BPM trends (including MDM integration):
I would be glad to get feedback on this.

Iterative Development in BPM Applications Using Traceability (November 3,Column2 blog by Sandy Kemsley)

Dear Sandy,
thanks for this post too. I appreciate your work, I think it’s big value for the BPM community.
I think traceability is crucial, but may not be enough. What we really need is coherency and alignment of models. The complexity of modern enterprise applications requires several models to describe all the relevant aspects. Design tools should be aware of this and *grant* alignment by construction.
This could be fairly easy for models that deal with the same level of abstraction, while it could be much more difficult when alignment is needed between business and IT models of course.
Furthermore (maybe even more crucial), alignment should be granted between models and implementation.
In my experience, all this can be achieved only through well engineered model-driven development (MDD) approaches.